================================ Week 4 - Conditional Probability ================================ Monday 10:00 - 10:50 -------------------- + Monty Hall Problem activity: + Spend 5/10 minutes explaining the concept of the game show to the class. + Split the class into pairs. One of each pair becomes the 'host', and the other becomes the 'contestant'. + They will play the Monty Hall game 10 times (using cardboard cups as doors, coloured card as cars/goats). + For each round they record the outcome (stick / swap, car / goat). + Ask class what was the best strategy? (leave as open discussion) + Collect every pair's results, determine the class' overall success rate when sticking and when swapping. + Ask the class again what was the best strategy? Have a discussion around why (boxes, three scenarios, etc.). + Gradually introduce concept that knowledge can change probabilities. Independence / dependence of events (use example playing cards with and without a joker), and conditional probabiity. Tuesday 09:00 - 10:50 --------------------- + Work on tutorial sheet 3, conditional probability. + 'Open' group question: "Each year 1 in 20,000 people die in a road accident in Britain, what’s the probability of dying in a road accident before turning a hundred years old?" (Give time to discuss approaches, assumptions, missing information. Can finish by discussing 'my' solution: `blog post `_)