===================== Week 1 - Introduction ===================== Monday 10:00 - 10:50 -------------------- A general introduction lecture. Topics to cover: + Course structure + Topics + Teachers and tutors + Lecture notes and reading + Coursework Tuesday 09:00 - 10:50 --------------------- Play the epidemiology activity. + Open with the question: "Imagine if one day a student came in sick with a nasty infectious disease. How long would it take for that disease to spread through the whole university?" What factors effect this? Try to get answers such as: + Number of students + Probability of transmitting disease (how? cough? touch? sexually? how do these effect probability?) + Recovery rate + The game: + Each student is given a dice. + Each student can either be *Susceptible* (remain seated), *Infected* (stood up) or *Recovered* (at the back of the room). Start the game with all students *Susceptible*, except 1, who is *Infected*. + Each round: + Each *Infected* student interacts with **every** *Susceptible* student. An interaction consists of both student rolling their dice. If the combined score is 11 or 12 then the *Susceptible* student becomes *Infected* (they do not interact with anyone else this round). + After these interactions each *Infected* student (except newly infected students) roll their die twice. If the total of the two rolls is 5, they become *Recovered*. + Repeat until everyone is *Recovered* (or too much time has passed). + Discuss randomness, probabilities. + After each round, record in a table the number of *Susceptible*, *Infected* and *Recovered* students. The table may look like this: ===== =========== ======== ========= Round Susceptible Infected Recovered ===== =========== ======== ========= 0 29 1 0 1 26 4 0 2 24 5 1 ===== =========== ======== ========= + After playing the game, type numbers into the epidemiology spreadsheet. Look at graphs. Discuss data visualisation, mean values, etc. Discuss 'what if''s and play around with the spreadsheet, e.g. + What is the disease was more infectious? + What if infected people were put into quarantine for a period of time? + What if contact rate was different?